Economics

Doug McNair has done extensive writing and editing work for the Office of Financial Research (OFR), US Department of the Treasury. He has worked on the OFR’s annual reports, research briefs, working papers, blog posts, and press releases.

OFR Annual Reports

• Office of Financial Research (OFR). (2023, November 30). Office of Financial Research 2023 annual report to Congress. Washington, DC: OFR, US Department of the Treasury.
• Office of Financial Research (OFR). (2023, January 12). Office of Financial Research 2022 annual report to Congress. Washington, DC: OFR, US Department of the Treasury.

OFR Research Briefs

• Doolittle, T., & Fliegelman, A. (2023, August 24). Work-from-home and the future consolidation of the U.S. commercial real estate office sector: The decline of regional malls may provide insight (OFR Brief no. 23-03). Office of Financial Research Brief Series. https://www.financialresearch.gov/briefs/2023/08/24/work-from-home-and-commercial-real-estate/
• Hempel, S. J., Kahn, R. J., Mann, R., & Paddrik, M. (2023, May 12). Why is so much repo not centrally cleared? (OFR Brief no. 23-01). Office of Financial Research Brief Series. https://www.financialresearch.gov/briefs/2023/05/12/why-is-so-much-repo-not-centrally-cleared/
• Ilabaca, F. E., & Nguyen, V. (2023, May 30). An early look into digital assets regulatory data (OFR Brief no. 23-02). Office of Financial Research Brief Series. https://www.financialresearch.gov/briefs/2023/05/30/an-early-look-into-digital-assets-regulatory-data/

OFR Working Papers

• Bejarano, J. (2023, June 27). The transition to alternative reference rates in the OFR Financial Stress Index (OFR Working Paper no. 23-07). https://www.financialresearch.gov/working-papers/2023/06/27/transition-alternative-reference-rates-in-ofr-financial-stress-index/
• Chen, W., & Phelan, G. (2023, March 22). Digital currency and banking sector stability (OFR Working Paper no. 23-01). https://www.financialresearch.gov/working-papers/2023/03/22/digital-currency-and-banking-sector-stability/
• Eisenbach, T. M., & Phelan, G. (2023, April 3). Fragility of safe assets (OFR Working Paper no. 23-02). https://www.financialresearch.gov/working-papers/2023/04/03/fragility-of-safe-assets/
• Kahn, R. J., McCormick, M., Nguyen, V., Paddrik, M., & Young, H. P. (2023, April 25). Anatomy of the repo rate spikes in September 2019 (OFR Working Paper no. 23-04). https://www.financialresearch.gov/working-papers/2023/04/25/anatomy-of-the-repo-rate-spikes-in-september-2019/
• L’Huillier, J-P., & Phelan, G. (2023, April 20). Can supply shocks be inflationary with a flat Phillips curve? (OFR Working Paper no. 23-03). https://www.financialresearch.gov/working-papers/2023/04/20/can-supply-shocks-be-inflationary-with-a-flat-phillips-curve/
• Phelan, G., L’Huillier, J-P., & Wieman, H. (2023, June 12). Technology shocks and predictable Minsky cycles (OFR Working Paper no. 23-06). https://www.financialresearch.gov/working-papers/2023/06/12/technology-shocks-and-predictable-minsky-cycles/
• Phelan, G., & Love, D. (2023, May 16). Sustainability with risky growth (OFR Working Paper no. 23-05). https://www.financialresearch.gov/working-papers/2023/05/16/sustainability-with-risky-growth/
• Ruchti, R. Barardehi, Y., Bird, A., & Karolyi, S. A. (2023, October 11). Are short-selling restrictions effective? (OFR Working Paper no. 23-08). https://www.financialresearch.gov/working-papers/2023/10/11/are-short-selling-restrictions-effective/

OFR Blog Posts

• Chiella, D., Hamandi, H., & Leung, R. (2023, March 7). Five risk areas that financial regulators should watch in 2023. The OFR Blog. https://www.financialresearch.gov/the-ofr-blog/2023/03/07/five-risk-areas-that-financial-regulators-should-watch-in-2023/
• Doolittle, T., & Fliegelman, A. (2023, June 1). Five office sector metrics to watch. The OFR Blog. https://www.financialresearch.gov/the-ofr-blog/2023/06/01/five-office-sector-metrics-to-watch/
• Doolittle, T., Fliegelman, A., Leung, R. (2023, March 23). Risk spotlight: Risk from the real estate market is limited, but changes in occupancy and prices may increase the risk. The OFR Blog. https://www.financialresearch.gov/the-ofr-blog/2023/03/23/risk-from-the-real-estate-market/
• Hempel, S. J., Kahn, R. J., Mann, R., & Paddrik, M. (2022, December 5). OFR’s pilot provides unique window into the non-centrally cleared bilateral repo market. The OFR Blog. https://www.financialresearch.gov/the-ofr-blog/2022/12/05/fr-sheds-light-on-dark-corner-of-the-repo-market/
• Hempel, S. J., Kahn, R. J., Mann, R., & Paddrik, M. (2023, May 12). Why is so much repo not centrally cleared? The OFR Blog. https://www.financialresearch.gov/the-ofr-blog/2023/05/12/why-is-so-much-repo-not-centrally-cleared/
• Ilabaca, F. E., & Nguyen, V. (2023, May 30). OFR data analysis shows high growth, high concentration in digital asset market. The OFR Blog. https://www.financialresearch.gov/the-ofr-blog/2023/05/30/data-analysis-shows-high-growth-high-concentration-in-digital-asset-market/
• Kahn, R. J., McCormick, M., Nguyen, V., Paddrik, M., & Young, H. P. (2023, April 25). OFR identifies factors that may have contributed to the 2019 spike in repo rates. The OFR Blog. https://www.financialresearch.gov/the-ofr-blog/2023/04/25/ofr-identifies-factors-that-may-have-contributed-to-the-2019-spike-in-repo-rates/
• Miller, W. (2023, February 28). OFR announces events for new and aspiring PhD scholars. The OFR Blog. https://www.financialresearch.gov/the-ofr-blog/2023/02/28/ofr-announces-event-for-new-and-aspiring-phd-scholars/
• Office of Financial Research (OFR). (2023, August 31). Twelve years of promoting financial stability. The OFR Blog. https://www.financialresearch.gov/the-ofr-blog/2023/08/31/twelve-years-of-promoting-financial-stability/
• Phelan, G., & Chen, W. (2023, March 22). Digital currency may increase household welfare, lower volatility but post risks to banks. The OFR Blog. https://www.financialresearch.gov/the-ofr-blog/2023/03/22/digital-currency-may-increase-uousehold-welfare/
• Phelan, G., & Eisenbach, T. (2023, April 3). OFR models one theory on the cause of March 2020’s Treasury market fragility. The OFR Blog. https://www.financialresearch.gov/the-ofr-blog/2023/04/03/ofr-models-one-theory-on-the-cause-of-march-2020s-treasury-market-fragility/
• Phelan, G., & L’Huillier, J-P. (2023, April 20). OFR creates model justifying long-held view about inflation determinants. The OFR Blog. https://www.financialresearch.gov/the-ofr-blog/2023/04/20/ofr-creates-model-justifying-long-held-view-about-inflation-determinants/
• Phelan, G., & Love, D. (2023, May 16). Threats to sustainability stem particularly from factors that stymie growth and have high levels of risk. The OFR Blog. https://www.financialresearch.gov/the-ofr-blog/2023/05/16/threats-to-sustainability-stem/
• Ruchti, T., Barardehi, Y., Bird, A., & Karolyi, S. A. (2023, October 11). Limiting short selling during periods of individual stock stress reduces volatility and raises prices. The OFR Blog. https://www.financialresearch.gov/the-ofr-blog/2023/10/11/are-short-selling-restrictions-effective/
• Yamarthy, R., & Alquist, R. (2022, December 27). Hedge fund activities can influence the U.S. Treasury yield curve. The OFR Blog. https://www.financialresearch.gov/the-ofr-blog/2022/12/27/hedge-fund-activities-can-influence-the-us-treasury-yield-curve/
• Young, P. (2023, February 13). Risk spotlight: Central counterparties—Lessons learned from LME’s nickel market closure. The OFR Blog. https://www.financialresearch.gov/the-ofr-blog/2023/02/13/central-counterparties-lessons-learned-from-lmes-nickel-market-closure/
• Zhao, K. (2023, February 7). Risk spotlight: OFR identifies three ways DeFi growth could threaten financial stability. The OFR Blog. https://www.financialresearch.gov/the-ofr-blog/2023/02/07/ofr-identifies-three-ways-defi-growth-could-threaten-financial-stability/

OFR Press Releases

• Office of Financial Research (OFR). (2023, January 5). Office of Financial Research releases proposal to collect data on certain repo transactions [Press release]. https://www.financialresearch.gov/press-releases/2023/01/05/office-of-financial-research-releases-proposal-to-collect-data-on-certain-repo-transactions/
• Office of Financial Research (OFR). (2023, January 12). OFR finds elevated threats to U.S. financial stability due to inflation, tighter credit, and geopolitical uncertainties [Press release]. https://www.financialresearch.gov/press-releases/2023/01/12/ofr-finds-elevated-threats-to-u-s-financial-stability/
• Office of Financial Research (OFR). (2023, April 6). OFR advances data-and-analytics platform following successful pilot [Press release]. https://www.financialresearch.gov/press-releases/2023/04/06/ofr-advances-data-and-analytics-platform-following-successful-pilot/
• Office of Financial Research (OFR). (2023, June 8). OFR’s 2023 interagency data inventory catalogs more than 500 data collections [Press release]. https://www.financialresearch.gov/press-releases/2023/06/08/OFR-s-2023-interagency-data-inventory-catalogs-more-than-500-data-collections/
• Office of Financial Research (OFR). (2023, June 27). OFR updates financial stress index with alternative reference rate indicators [Press release]. https://www.financialresearch.gov/press-releases/2023/06/27/ofr-updates-financial-stress-index-with-alternative-reference-rate-indicators/
• Office of Financial Research (OFR). (2023, July 11). OFR announces call for paper for October 2023 PhD Symposium [Press release]. https://www.financialresearch.gov/press-releases/2023/07/11/call-for-papers-october-2023-phd-symposium/
• Office of Financial Research (OFR). (2023, July 28). Office of Financial Research launches join analysis data environment for FSOC [Press release]. https://www.financialresearch.gov/press-releases/2023/07/28/office-of-financial-research-launches-joint-analysis-data-environment-for-fsoc/
• Office of Financial Research (OFR). (2023, August 31). OFR launches LinkedIn page to raise awareness of financial stability risks [Press release]. https://www.financialresearch.gov/press-releases/2023/08/31/ofr-launches-linkedin-page/

Financial Analysis

Doug McNair writes practical applications (PA) articles and assessment items based on work published in academic journals in the area of investments (Portfolio Management Research).

• Al-Abduljader, S. (2018). Returning to the Silk Road: Should global portfolios replace BRICS? Journal of Index Investing, 8(4).
• Andersson, C., Broberg, C., Kaskal, K., & Sonesson, M. (2021). Portfolio construction and new energy infrastructure investing. Journal of Impact and ESG Investing, 2(2).
• Arnott, R., Ko, A., & Wu, L. (2022). Where’s the beef? Journal of Investing, 31(4).
• Baitinger, E., & Maier, T. (2019). The (mis)behavior of hedge fund strategies: A network-based analysis. Journal of Alternative Investments, 22(1).
• Belev, E., & DiBartolomeo, D. (2021). Private equity benchmarking for asset owners and investment managers. Journal of Index Investing, 12(2).
• Berger, A. L. (2022). “An index isn’t a fiduciary” and what that means for active management. Journal of Index Investing, 11(4)–12(1).
• Berkowitz, J. P., & DeLisle, J. (2018). Volatility as an asset class: Holding VIX in a portfolio. Journal of Alternative Investments, 21(2).
• Berrada, T., Scaillet, O., & Zhang, Z. (2022, April 15). Asset allocation implications of illiquid assets. Journal of Investing. doi: 10.3905/joi.2022.1.229
• Blanchett, D. (2020). The value of allocating to annuities. Journal of Retirement, 8(1).
• Bonaparte, Y., Fabozzi, F. J., & Koslowsky, D. (2020). Can commodity price uncertainty indexes be improved by capturing media information? The case of oil price uncertainty. Journal of Alternative Investments, 22(4).
• Bruckner, C. L., & Forman, J. B. (2021). Shoring up shortfalls: Women, retirement, and the growing GigSupp economy. Journal of Retirement, 9(1).
• Buetow Jr., G. W., & Hanke, B. (2020). How long is long enough? Journal of Retirement, 8(2).
• Busack, M., Drobetz, W., & Tille, J. (2019). The predictability of alternative UCITS fund returns. Journal of Alternative Investments, 22(1).
• Chang, C. E., Krueger, T. M., & Witte, H. D. (2021). Importance of costs in target date fund selection using three Morningstar ratings. Journal of Retirement, 8(4).
• Clare, A., Glover, S., Seaton, J., Smith, P. N., & Thomas S. (2020). Measuring sequence of returns risk. Journal of Retirement, 8(1).
• Clare, A., Seaton, J., Smith, P. N., & Thomas, S. (2021). Perfect withdrawal in a noisy world: Investing lessons with and without annuities while in drawdown between 2000 and 2019. Journal of Retirement, 9(1).
• Clark, R., Lusardi, A., Mitchell, O. S., & Davis, H. (2021). Factors contributing to financial well-being among Black and Hispanic women. Journal of Retirement, 9(2).
• Cordell, L., Feldberg, G., & Sass, D. (2019). The role of ABS CDOs in the financial crisis. The Journal of Structured Finance, 25(2).
• Crook, M. W. (2019). Liabilities matter: Improving target date glidepath construction through liability adaptive asset allocation. Journal of Retirement, 7(1).
• Czasonis, M., Kritzman, M., & Turkington, D. (2019). Private equity valuations and public equity performance. Journal of Alternative Investments, 2(1).
• Davis, J., Tiantian, G. Q., Ramirez, G., Guo, H., Li, D., & Yap, Z. (2022). Emerging market investing: A multi-asset, granular, and dynamic portfolio approach. Journal of Portfolio Management, 48(8).
• de Groot, W., Swinkels, L., & Zhou, W. (2021). China A-shares: Strategic allocation to market and factor premiums. Journal of Portfolio Management, 47(7).
• Ehlers, S., & Gauer, K. (2019). Beyond bitcoin: A statistical comparison of leading cryptocurrencies and fiat currencies and their impact on portfolio diversification. Journal of Alternative Investments, 22(1).
• Ennis, R. M.  (2022). Are endowment managers better than the rest? Journal of Investing, 31(6).
• Ennis, R. M. (2022). The modern endowment story: A ubiquitous US equity factor. Journal of Portfolio Management, 48(11).
• Ennis, R. M. (2022). A universal investment portfolio for public pension funds: Making the most of our herding ways. Journal of Investing, 32(1).
• Estrada, J. (2020). Retirement planning : From Z to A. Journal of Retirement, 8(2).
• Estrada, J. (2020). Target date funds, glidepaths, and risk aversion. Journal of Wealth Management, 23(3).
• Finke, M., & Fichtner, J. J. (2021). Employee opinions about partial annuitization in a retirement plan. Journal of Retirement, 9(3).
• Focardi, S., & Fabozzi, F. J. (2022). Why should asset management be interested in new economic thinking? Journal of Portfolio Management, 48(10).
• Francis, J. C., & Ibbotson, R. G. (2020). Real estate returns. Journal of Alternative Investments, 23(2).
• Ghilarducci, T., Papadopoulos, M., & Webb, A. (2022, February 21). The illusory benefit of working longer on retirement financial preparedness: Rethinking advice that working longer increases retirement income. Journal of Retirement, 9(3). doi: 10.3905/jor.2022.1.104
• Glas, T. N. (2019). Investments in cryptocurrencies. Journal of Alternative Investments, 22(1).
• Gyura, G. (2020). Green bonds and green bond funds: The quest for the real impact. Journal of Alternative Investments, 23(1).
• Hammond, D. R. (2020). Should endowments continue to commit to private investments? Journal of Investing, 30(1).
• Harlow, W. V., Brown, K. C., & Jenks, S. E. (2019). The use and value of financial advice for retirement planning. Journal of Retirement, 7(3).
• Harris, M. (2019). Should a retiree file for Social Security at 62 or 70? Journal of Retirement, 7(2).
• Harrison, J. P., & Samaddar, S. (2020). Who is better at investment decisions: Man or machine? Journal of Wealth Management, 23(3).
• Hartley, J. S. (2019). Liquid alternative mutual funds versus hedge funds: Returns, risk factors, and diversification. Journal of Alternative Investments, 22(1).
• Harvey, C. R. (2022). The term structure and world economic growth: A retrospective and 30 years of out-of-sample evidence. Journal of Fixed Income, 32(2).
• Holub, M., & Johnson, J. (2019). Bitcoin price anomalies: Peer-to-peer (P2P) trading on LocalBitcoins. Journal of Alternative Investments, 22(1).
• Hooke, J., Park, C., & Yook, K. C. (2019). Alternative-asset fees, returns, and volatility of state pension funds: A case study of the New Jersey Pension Fund. Journal of Alternative Investments, 22(3).
• Horan, S. M., Dimson, E., Emery, C., Blay, K., & Yelton, G. (2022). The state of ESG investing: A portfolio management perspective. Journal of Impact and ESG Investing, 2(4).
• Hougaard Jensen, S. E., Lassila, J., Määtänen, N., Valkonen, T., & Westerhout, E. (2020). The top three pension systems: Denmark, Finland, and the Netherlands. Journal of Retirement, 8(2).
• Ilmanen, A., Swati, C., & McQuinn, N. (2019). Demystifying illiquid assets: Expected returns for private equity. Journal of Alternative Investments, 22(3).
• Jablecki, J. (2022). Doing well while doing good: The elusive quest for green bond returns. Journal of Impact and ESG Investing, 3(2).
• Jacobsen, B., & Scheiber, M. (2022, March 16). Harvesting multi-asset carry, value, and momentum: Work smarter, not harder. Journal of Financial Data Science. doi 10.3905/jfds.2022.1.087
• Kanuri, S. (2022). An empirical examination of lifestyle mutual funds. Journal of Retirement, 9(3).
• Kanuri, S., Malm, J., & Malhotra, D. K. (2021). Is tactical allocation a winning strategy: Journal of Index Investing, 12(2).
• Kanuri, S., & Malhotra, D. K. (2023). Evaluating the performance of world allocation funds. Journal of Wealth Management, 25(1).
• Konstantinov, G. S. (2021). What portfolio in Europe makes sense? Journal of Portfolio Management, 47, 7.
• Knutzen, E. (2022). Private markets—From alternative to mainstream: Evolution during the past 30 years and key trends and challenges for the decades to come. Journal of Investing, 31(4).
• Kuenzi, D. E. (2020). Sources of return dispersion in alternative risk premia. Journal of Alternative Investments, 22(4).
• Lodgher, A., & Harun, S. (2022, March 18). Can a momentum strategy outperform the S&P 500 index in a retirement plan? Journal of Retirement. doi: 10.3905/jor.2022.1.108
• Marchel, K., & Markarian, G. (2019). Why invest in private equity? A comparison of private equity and stock market returns. Journal of Alternative Investments, 22(1).
• Martellini, L., Milhau, V., & Mulvey, J. (2020). Securing replacement income with goal-based retirement investing strategies. Journal of Retirement, 7(4).
• McCarthy, D. F., & Wong, B. M. (2020). A performance update—hedge funds versus hedged mutual funds: An examination of equity long–short funds. Journal of Alternative Investments, 23(2).
• McMillan, B., Myers, J., Nguyen, A., Robinson, D., & Kennard, M. (2021). Analysis and comparison of natural language processing algorithms as applied to Bitcoin conversations on social media. The Journal of Investing, 31(2).
• Minahan, J. R. (2022). Reflections on professional ethics in investment management and pension fund investment consulting. Journal of Investing, 31(4).
• Nahmer, T. (2020). The diversification benefit of actual investing in fine wine. The Journal of Alternative Investments, 22(4).
• Neville, H., Draaisma, T., Funnell, B., Harvey, C. R., & Hemert, O. V. (2021). The best strategies for inflationary times. Journal of Portfolio Management, 47(10).
• Parker, F. J. (2020). Allocation of wealth both within and across goals. Journal of Wealth Management, 23(1).
• Partridge, C., & Medda, F. R. (2020). Green bond pricing: The search for greenium. Journal of Alternative Investments, 23(1).
• Peters, D. J. (2022). Thriving amid the ravages of creative destruction in the investment management industry. Journal of Investing, 31(4).
• Phalippou, L. (2020). An inconvenient fact: Private equity returns and the billionaire factory. Journal of Investing, 30(1).
• Rappaport, A., (2019). The unrealistic optimism that threatens retirement security. Journal of Retirement, 7(2).
• Reichenstein, W., & Meyer, W. (2019). Medicare and tax planning for higher-income households. Journal of Wealth Management, 22(3).
• Reichenstein, W., & Meyer, W. (2020). Investment implications of the rising and falling pattern of marginal tax rates for retirees. Journal of Retirement, 8(1).
• Saha, A., & Roberts, H. (2019). Are actively managed mutual funds per se imprudent choices for 401(k) plans? Journal of Retirement, 7(1).
• Scharfman, J. (2019). Analysis of three emerging trends in limited partnership operational due diligence. Journal of Alternative Investments, 22(3).
• Schultz, G. M., & Fabozzi, F. P. (2022). Primer on agency mortgage-backed securities specified pools and their convexity profiles. Journal of Fixed Income, 31(4).
• Shibly, R., Subkoviak, A., & Bouchey, P. (2022). Catholic values and direct indexing: No performance penance needed. Journal of Beta Investment Strategies, 13(2).
• Shoven, J. B., & Walton, D. B. (2021). An analysis of the performance of target date funds. Journal of Retirement, 8(4).
• Siegel, L. B., & Sexauer, S. C. (2022). Debunking 7-1/2 myths of investing. Journal of Investing, 31(4).
• Soni, A. (2020). Performance dispersion risk assessment in alternatives and active strategies. Journal of Alternative Investments, 22(4).
• Speidell, L. S. (2022). A time of reckoning in emerging markets. Journal of Investing, 31(4).
• Stamos, M. (2022). Portfolio risk mitigation without bonds. Journal of Portfolio Management, 48(4).
• Thanki, H., Karani, A., & Kumar Goyal, A. (2020). Psychological antecedents of financial risk tolerance. Journal of Wealth Management, 23(2).
• Thiagarajan, R., Han, J., Hurd, A., Im, H., & Malik, G. (2021). Financial globalization and its implications for diversification and portfolio risk. Journal of Investing, 30(6).
• Tidmore, C., & Hon, A. (2021). Patience with active performance cyclicality: It’s harder than you think. Journal of Investing, 30(4).
• Travis, D. H., & Dicle, M. F. (2022). Reluctant investors: A behavioral experiment. Journal of Wealth Management, 25(2).
• Walker, R. L., Wingender Jr., J. R., Purcell III, T. J. (2021). Tax reform, company value, and Biden proposals. Journal of Investing, 31(1).
• Warshawsky, M. J. (2022). The trouble with state government employee pension plans: The case of Connecticut. Journal of Retirement, 9(3).
• Xu, G. (2018). Static and dynamic tax diversification of withdrawals from multiple individual retirement accounts. Journal of Retirement, 6(2).
• Zhang, L. (2021). ESG rating divergence: Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. Journal of Index Investing, 12(3).
• Zorina, I., & Corlett-Roy, L. (2022). The hunt for alpha is ESG fixed income: Fund evidence from around the world. Journal of Impact and ESG Investing, 3(1).